Halloween candy sales are experiencing a sluggish start this season, as U.S. households navigate the pressures of rising living expenses and high chocolate prices. Market research from NielsenIQ indicates that candy sales dropped by 6.7% in the month leading up to October 17 compared to the same timeframe in the previous year. Furthermore, mid-September saw an 11.7% decline in sales, effectively erasing the preseason growth that the sector had enjoyed over the preceding two years. 2 dead, 11 injured after Kansas mother drives onto soccer field during game: Police. U.S. candy prices have been climbing faster than the rate of inflation for several years. Woman’s body found in massive tank after yearslong investigation.
Industry experts point to a shift in consumer behavior driven by economic necessity. Chris Costagli, a vice president and food thought leader at NielsenIQ, explained that elevated gasoline prices—which reached an average of $4.29 per gallon as of late October, marking a nearly 40% increase from the prior year—have significantly heightened concerns regarding affordability. This financial strain is directly impacting demand for holiday treats.
“I think what you’re seeing now is a consumer that’s spending so much additional money on fuel and housing and clothing and food,” Costagli noted. He added that purchasing decisions are increasingly dictated by a lack of financial means rather than a simple reaction to price hikes, observing that small bags of candy were the only size category seeing growth through mid-October, while large and extra-large varieties experienced the sharpest declines.
Long-term data highlights the broader context of these costs. As of September, the price of candy and gum had surged 44% over a five-year period, outpacing the 22.5% increase for overall food eaten at home. Current retail pricing reflects this trend; for instance, a 135-piece variety pack from Mars Inc. was priced at $19.87 at some discount grocers, nearly matching the cost of a 250-piece pack five years ago. This week, discount grocer Aldi was advertising a 135-piece variety pack of Mars Inc. chocolate bars – including Milky Way, Trix and Snickers – for $19.87.
The spike in cocoa prices remains the primary driver of these costs. After reaching a record $10,710 per metric ton in January 2025 due to poor harvests in West Africa—which provides 70% of the global supply—and speculative market trading, prices fluctuated. While they dipped to $3,241 in March, they began rising again in the spring as the Iran war disrupted fertilizer supplies. Additionally, the El Niño weather pattern continues to threaten production with hot, dry conditions expected to persist through February. And hit $3,241 per metric ton in March, cocoa prices had been falling steadily since then. School bus driver surprised with check, minnesota man credited with saving kids.
Interestingly, lower prices do not automatically guarantee higher demand. Nielsen data shows that non-chocolate candies, such as lollipops and gummies, saw average prices drop 3% to $6.08 per pound in the nine weeks ending October 17, yet this price reduction failed to trigger a corresponding increase in sales volume.
Sally Lyons Wyatt, a global executive vice president at the market research firm Circana, suggests that shoppers are managing their budgets by making more frequent, smaller trips to supermarkets and purchasing items closer to their intended use. This strategy may explain the current sales lag, as consumers potentially wait until the last minute to buy their holiday supply. “People are very intentional and thoughtful about what they want to consume, not just for holidays, but in general,” Wyatt said. “I do believe we will still see softness overall with candy, but I don’t think Halloween is doomed.” But that didn’t lead to a bump in sales.
Despite the current downward trend, trade representatives remain hopeful. The National Confectioners Association, which counts Mars, Smarties Candy Co., and Ferrara Candy Co. among its members, issued a statement on Friday expressing confidence in the season. “We are just now entering the peak period for Halloween and consumer enthusiasm remains incredibly strong,” the group stated.
