Government data indicates that deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has dropped to the lowest level since official monitoring began in 1988. Satellite analysis from the Prodes series revealed a 41.8% reduction in forest loss over the past year, totaling 3,335 square kilometers. This figure marks a significant milestone, falling 1,236 square kilometers below the previous record low, an area comparable in size to Rio de Janeiro. According to the Brazilian, With the worst records in 2026 were Pará, which registered 33.9% of all Amazon deforestation in the year, Mato Grosso (25.5%) and Amazonas (15.7%). However, even in those places the figures were down by more than 45% on the previous year.
Since 2022—the year prior to the current administration—the rate of deforestation has declined by 71.2%. This downward trend is attributed largely to increased enforcement efforts and state funding for environmental protection agencies. Similarly, the Cerrado savannah biome recorded its lowest annual deforestation since 2001 at 5,516 square kilometers, reflecting a 48.4% drop over the last four years. Since 2022, the year before the start of the Lula administration, the deforestation rate has slowed by 71.2%, according to the data collated by Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research. Which is a Bolsonaro stronghold, the state where the problem grew worse (up 0.4%) was Roraima. They are expected to shift Brazil’s trade priorities, particularly when it comes to critical minerals, from China and Europe to the US, if the family secure power.
Regional Environmental Performance
- Pará: Registered 33.9% of total Amazon deforestation.
- Mato Grosso: Accounted for 25.5% of clearance.
- Amazonas: Responsible for 15.7% of deforestation.
- Roraima: The only state to show a growth in deforestation, rising by 0.4%.
Despite these improvements, the future of the Amazon hangs in the balance as voters approach the 25 October presidential runoff. The election pits incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The contrast between the two candidates is stark: Lula emphasizes the Amazon as a sovereign asset and a critical component of global climate stability, while warning against foreign attempts to capture the region’s resources. But whether this globally important success is maintained or reversed is on a knife edge ahead of a presidential election run-off on 25 October between two candidates with sharply different visions for the future of the rainforest and how that affects relations with the US under Donald Trump. Jair has saluted the US flag and led chants of “USA, USA”.
In contrast, the Bolsonaro campaign aligns with extractivist interests and predatory landowners. Former environment minister Marina Silva has cautioned that a victory for the younger Bolsonaro could reignite the “perverse project” of forest destruction seen during his father’s 2019-2023 term. During that period, deforestation increased by 59.5% due to the weakening of regulatory bodies and reduced penalties for environmental crimes. Which brought some conservationists to tears, stand in sharp contrast to the 2019-23 term of Jair Bolsonaro, who oversaw a 59.5% increase in Amazon deforestation, roughly equivalent to destroying more than a million trees a day, through cuts to forest protection agencies, reduced implementation of penalties for environmental crimes, and verbal encouragement for illegal miners, loggers and, these spectacular results. Bolsonaro was then convicted for attempting a coup but his son has vowed to release his father and let him take any position in government that he chooses. However, is likely to be the far right’s willingness to exploit natural resources in the Amazon and elsewhere in Brazil and then sell them to the highest bidder, regardless of environmental and social concerns, the biggest difference.
The electoral divide is physically mapped in the region: Bolsonaro garnered the most support in areas characterized by degraded land and industrial agriculture, whereas Lula secured more votes in urban centers and regions with relatively intact forest cover. Political differences also extend to foreign relations. While the Bolsonaro family maintains close ties to the United States—with Eduardo Bolsonaro residing in Texas and advocating for tariffs on his own country—the current administration remains wary of external influence.
Reflecting on the data, Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, noted that ending forest destruction is clearly achievable. However, he warned that the outcome depends entirely on the upcoming election, stating that the nation will choose between a path toward ending deforestation or moving toward the end of the forest itself.
Important Details
- Forest clearance at smallest total since records began in 1988 in success for Lula ahead of presidential run-off.
